Determinants of mortality risk in older adults from the ELSIA study: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study investigated factors that may determine longevity in older adults, aiming to prolong their life expectancy and improve projections from before the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for mortality in older Brazilian adults. DESIGN AND SETTING: A prospective cohort study, part of the Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Idoso de Alcobaça. METHODS: This study included 332 older adults of both sexes who were followed up for over five years (2015–2020). Vital status was determined via telephone follow-up, information provided by family members, and death certificates. To identify the sociodemographic, health, functional, and behavioral factors associated with mortality risk among older adults, Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The risk factors for mortality among older adults included the number of people living with them (HR = 1.22; 95%CI = 1.07–1.38) and the number of prescribed drugs (HR = 1.15; 95%CI = 1.00–1.32). Factors associated with a lower risk of mortality were greater time spent in physical activity (HR = 0.99; 95%CI = 0.90–0.99) and greater hip circumference (HR = 0.95; 95%CI = 0.31–0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic, health, functional, and behavioral factors are determinants of mortality risk among older adults. Regular screening of the older adult population should be conducted to assess their general health status, allowing for more appropriate interventions to increase their quality of life and improve aging