PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate
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2019
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We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate
PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated
Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and
its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatiotemporal
description of the climate of the last 5 106 years.
The 5 106-year time frame is interesting for a range of
paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses
the evolution of humans. However, the choice of
time frame was primarily pragmatic; tectonic changes can
be neglected to first order, so that it is reasonable to consider
climate forcing restricted to the Earth’s orbital configuration,
ice-sheet state, and the concentration of atmosphere
CO2. The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation
of the singular value decomposition of ensembles of
the intermediate-complexity atmosphere–ocean GCM (general
circulation model) PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of
bioclimatic variables of surface air temperature (warmest and
coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and driest seasons)
are emulated at 1000-year intervals, driven by time series
of scalar boundary-condition forcing (CO2, orbit, and ice
volume) and assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium.
Paleoclimate anomalies at climate model resolution are interpolated
onto the observed modern climatology to produce a
high-resolution spatio-temporal paleoclimate reconstruction
of the Pliocene–Pleistocene.
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HOLDEN, Philip B.; EDWARDS, Neil R.; RANGEL, Thiago F.; PEREIRA, Elisa B.; TRAN, Giang T.; WILKINSON, Richard D. PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene-Pleistocene climate. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Munich, v. 12, n. 12, p. 1-26, 2019. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-5137-2019. Disponível em: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/12/5137/2019. Acesso em: 27 mar. 2023.