Future climate change will impact the migration of New World migrant flycatchers (Tyrannidae)

Abstract

Climate change is reaching several tipping points, likely resulting in habitat shifts at a global scale. Such changes could have serious consequences for migratory species. For instance, climatic changes may impact the distribution of breeding and non-breeding ranges, resulting in longer migration distances for some species. The flycatchers (Tyrannidae) are the largest family of birds in New World. They are small insectivorous birds with different distributions and migratory strategies, including both tropical and temperate species. Here, we aim to map the climatically suitable ranges for Tyrannidae in the future, compare them to their present ranges, and quantify the changes in range size and in migratory distance. We show different impacts on species that breed in the northern vs. southern hemisphere. Furthermore, results suggest that tropical and temperate species would suffer from different stressors. Neotropical austral migrant species would lose part of their breeding ranges, while Nearctic-Neotropical species would need to fly longer distances to reach the same climatic conditions of their current breeding ranges. Because past climate shifts have shaped the evolution of bird migration, these insights are also key for elucidating the mechanisms underlying the evolution and regulation of bird migration, and for conservation planning.