Mestrado em Economia (FACE)
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Item Análise econômica das compensações financeiras pagas por transgressões do limite dos indicadores de continuidade na distribuição de energia elétrica: o caso Celg (2014 a 2016)(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2018-04-26) Barbosa, Lucas Martins; Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo; http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4770161D3; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4139717U9; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Scalco, Paulo Roberto; Queiroz, Antônio Marcos deThe mechanisms for stimulating quality improvement in the provision of the electricity distribution service emerged along the evolution of the regulatory process in the Brazilian electric power sector, with emphasis on: the continuity indicators and the consequences of the poor quality of the services rendered the payment of financial compensation to consumers and the risk of loss of the concession right. From this history, the National Electric Energy Agency - ANEEL, under constant supervision pointed to Celg as one company that had one of the worst rankings in the continuity rankings, and one of the most paid financial compensation to its consumer units. This research investigates the reduction of the volume paid in financial compensation by Celg, about R$ 220 million (reais), between 2014 and 2016. This partnership had a set of information with more over 200 million observations of long-term interruptions in the distribution of electricity and payment of financial compensation. For this analysis, an investigation made of the roots of the current problem of poor quality of service rendering, noting that one of the main factors causing the current scenario is several failures in the regulatory process that occurred throughout the development of the Brazilian electricity sector and, also, the non-investment in periods of technological transition and expansion of the use of electric energy, which Celg is inserted. To mitigate the high amounts paid in financial compensation, two different analyzes carried out in two articles; the first under the method of quantum regressions and the second through an exploratory analysis of spatial data. These analyzes decide two investment policies carried out by Celg, one for the regions where they most paid financial compensation and another for which there was practically no violation of the limits of the continuity indicators. The first proposal is to start corrective investments, improving distribution systems with implementing automation devices of the system (re-closers), while the second proposal is based in the investment in the revision of the systems that paid few compensations, with the aim of avoiding future problems.Item Comercialização da carne suína em São Paulo: análise de transmissão de preços(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2017-02-20) Castro, Aline Carvalho de; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo; Miqueleto, Guilherme JacobThe aim of this work is to study São Paulo pork marketing at levels of producer, wholesale and retail. In order to reach the objective was studied marketing margin, price transmission analysis and asymmetric price transmission test. The marketing margins study showed that retail is the market level that holds most of the sector's margins, averaging 56% over the analyzed period, while the wholesale margin and the producer share are on average 8% and 36% respectively. Regarding the analysis of price transmission, the SVEC model indicated that 1% producer’s prices variation, turn to 0,74% wholesale price’s variation, while 1% wholesale’s prices variation repercussion the retail price in 0,5%. Therefore, prices changes are not completely transmitted to the next stage. Production’s stage is most susceptible to adjustment along the chain, while retail is the most influencer to other stages prices. Result of the asymmetric error correction model (ECM) shows that price transmission farmer to retail is asymmetric. Indicating that increases and decreases in producer prices are not transmitted in the same path by retailers. Such evidence can be explained by high marketing margins at retailer stage, participation in large retail chains that have market power, access to information by being in direct contact with consumers and a high degree organization. Even not producing and not having the product, they are agents whose negotiate through contracts, which incur in less risk.Item Trajetórias da bovinocultura de corte no Brasil e no estado de Goiás: perspectivas para uma transição sustentável(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2023-01-18) Gomes, Raquel Oliveira; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Silva, Adriana Ferreira; Santos, Ricardo Bruno Nascimento dosThe dissertation is presented in the format of two articles. The first article sought to understand the elements linked to the economic and environmental issue in relation to the characteristics of beef cattle in Brazil and in the state of Goiás, investigating the advances in the main areas highlighted by the literature on the subject, mainly in the issue of animal food quality and in the implementation of integrated systems. The results show that for advances to be achieved in the environmental area, it is necessary that the alternatives presented to the producers consider their economic attractiveness and the operational capacity of their implementation. The second article sought to investigate the effects of demand and supply shocks on the trajectories of beef cattle in Brazil and the state of Goiás, taking into account the environmental aspect. Theoretically, we sought to include greenhouse gas emissions in the econometric modeling of a structural VAR, building on the traditional models initiated by Blanchard and Quah (1989) for Brazilian beef cattle. In the first article, it was possible to identify a set of advances in supplementation and confinement practices that have the potential to reduce greenhouse gases produced by beef cattle. However, the adoption of integrated systems by producers has not yet been shown to be a chosen alternative. In the second article, it was mainly observed that there is a need for planning the growth of the herds at a national level and in the state of Goiás, so that the increase in production in the coming years takes place with productivity gains and a reduction of the environmental impacts of the sector. In general, the components of GHG emissions, which also represent the sector's technological standard, and animal stock had the greatest long-term impacts on the other variables in the sector, reinforcing the need to combine good production practices to increase productivity and reduce the sector's impacts on the environment.Item Exportações brasileiras de soja para os principais destinos: uma análise de persistência à choques(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2022-05-30) Lima, Juan Lucas Alves de; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Mansueto, Sandro Eduardo; Silva, Renilson Rodrigues daAgribusiness is one of the most important sectors in Brazil. Almost a third of the Gross Domestic Product comes from the segment. In 2020, the participation of agribusiness corresponded to about 27% of the National GDP. Currently, soy is the main Brazilian agribusiness product, which is why the country stands out for being a leader in world production and export. This form of production is present in the five corners of Brazil, in nineteen states and the Federal District. In addition to strong production, Brazilian soy is present in a huge range of destinations, reaching 116 countries that buy Brazilian soy. Given the significant importance that soybeans have for Brazil, and for one of the main players in the global scenario, the objective of this study is to analyze whether the series of Brazilian exports to the main destinations have a long memory, that is, if there is persistence to shocks exogenous. The method used to identify the presence of long memory of the export series is the calculation of the Hurst exponent, H, and structural break tests. The exponent is found by calculating the R/S statistic and the DFA method, and the LM structural break test. The results showed that the Brazilian soybean export market is consolidated and that the shocks do not affect exports in a persistent and permanent way.Item Crescimento das exportações de carne bovina brasileira entre 2005 e 2015: fatores econômicos(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2018-04-16) Lima, Raylla Pereira de; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Silva, Adriana Ferreira da; Cruz Júnior, José CesarThe goal of this study is to identify the economic determinants responsible for the growth of Brazilian beef exports between 2005 and 2015, since, nowadays, Brazil maintains its position as the top exporter of this product. Furthermore, the study is extended to the elaboration of a theoretical model that explains this growth, through the specification of an econometric model, and an analysis regarding the impact of the explanatory variables on development of the quantum of beef exported by Brazil. A time series econometric model was developed, specifically a Vector Self-Regression Model with the correction of errors, with Bernanke identification. The results for the matrix of contemporary relations indicate that, differently from the expected result of the theoretical model, the retail price affects negatively the beef exports. A positive shock of 1% on that variable reduces the exports by 0,1%, approximately. Similarly, the cattle stock also showed an inverse relation with beef exports, but with a very low magnitude. As for the beef volume, it was observed that a 1% shock in that variable raises the exports in approximately 0,35%. The results obtained from the Impulse-Response Function indicate that cattle stock is a relevant variable in the explication of Brazilian beef exports, and also a non-anticipated shock in that variable results in a long term adjustment for most variables in the model. Through the decomposition of variance of forecast errors of the exports, it was observed that at the end of fourteen trimesters the currency exchange rate was responsible for approximately 10,7% of the error variance.Item Desempenho da produtividade total dos fatores (PTF), na agropecuária das mesorregiões de Goiás entre 1970 e 2017(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2023-05-15) Mello Júnior, Fernando Corrêa de; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Silva, Adriana Ferreira; Queiroz, Antônio Marcos deDuring the 1970s, the process known as agricultural modernization began in the state of Goiás, a little later than in the rest of Brazil, which started in the 1950s. Enabled mainly by public policies promoting regional development and abundant financing, the cerrado region of Goiás saw the introduction of new techniques capable of boosting productivity in the sector, as well as machinery, equipment, and inputs. This work contributes in two aspects i) to the literature, by providing a study of a geographical and regional scope that has not yet been explored; ii) it fills a gap in the detailed analysis of the state of Goiás, which is the fifth largest agricultural producer in the country in terms of Gross Value of Agricultural Production (VBP) in 2022. For the parties involved, it provides analytical evidence of the homogeneity or heterogeneity of the state's productivity, shedding light on state public policies and market decisions made by the productive agents. Given this scenario and the importance of agriculture for Goiás, the objective of this work is to analyze and compare the performance of agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in Goiás and its different Mesoregions. TFP was chosen as a proxy for productivity. The methodology used focused on analyzing TFP between 1970 and 2017, and its inputs and output indices calculated using the Törnqvist index (1936). The results showed that, starting from 1970, agricultural productivity in the Southern Mesoregion grew at a higher rate than that observed in the state of Goiás and the adjacent mesoregions, with the Capital index experiencing higher growth compared to Labor and Land indices from the same decade, indicating a shift towards largescale production in the regional agriculture, increasing labor and land productivity. The Eastern Mesoregion had the second highest annual growth rate of TFP during the study period, with a 0.13 percentage point difference from the leader. The performance of the Eastern Mesoregion was linked to the increase in the output index in the last two censuses, facilitated by irrigated crops using central pivots. The North and Northwest regions followed trajectories where livestock products had smaller increases in the output index compared to agricultural products, from 1970 to 2017, representing the main contributions to the agricultural value. On the other hand, the Central Mesoregion diverged from the state average of agricultural TFP, as land use for agricultural activities and labor experienced declines starting from 1985, resulting in the lowest average TFP growth during the analyzed period.Item Análise da persistência dos indicadores de continuidade do fornecimento de energia elétrica da Celg-D(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2018-06-08) Ribeiro, Viviane Pires; Monsueto, Sandro Eduardo; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5484881117429853; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Holanda, Francisco Bruno de Lima; Tabak, Benjamin MirandaWith the merger of Celg by the Enel group, one of the largest private companies in the Brazilian electric power sector, Enel Distribuição Goias has been facing serious problems related to its indicators of continued power supply, due to the fact that Celg-D has been in recent years, among the worst positions in the national ranking of service continuity and as one of the concessionaires that most compensates its consumers, directly affecting the company's results and generating losses to its shareholders. The requirement of the purchase agreement, defined by Aneel, is that, from 2019, the worsening trends in the SAID and SAIF indicators of Enel-GO will be reversed, under penalty of being intervened by the regulator and even losing the concession. In this scenario is the following question: Does the trend in the indicators of continuity of the Celg have the characteristic of persistence to the shocks, that is, it has long memory? The objective of this study is to analyze the persistence of the series of duration (SAID) and frequency (SAIF) of interruptions of the power supply of the company's electric sets during the periods prior to its privatization, from 2014 to 2016. Specifically, it seeks to test whether the series have long memory, to verify if the presence of structural breaks in the data changes the results and to identify if there is heterogeneity in the behavior of the series in different sets. For this, the methodology used is the method proposed by Robinson (1995) to analyze the persistence of the series and the Andrews and Ploberger (1994) test, with p-value using the approximations of Hansen (1997). The results suggest that there is a difference in the order of integration, depending on the type of series, duration or frequency and the electric set involved. Since the frequency series, in general, present more persistence than those of duration. When considering the potential presence of data breaks, there is a change in the order of integration of some series and in most of the sets the order found is less than 1. Therefore, both fractional integration analysis that considers the presence of break, do not consider, they point out that there are few sets that present persistent series and the majority of those who present are those that receive the highest compensations. However, it is not only the sets that receive large monetary amounts, in the form of compensations, that have series of persistent duration and / or frequency. Therefore, the hypothesis that part of the trend in the indicators has long-term components is partially rejected, in approximately 24% of the sets that received the highest DIC indicator compensations and in 40% of the sets that received the highest FIC compensation. In this way, the present work differs from the previous literature both in the sense of analyzing the behavior of the series of continuity indicators, with a methodology considered more robust, as well as by the database, not yet explored by the academy. Finally, the analysis allows both the direction of public and business policies and can be used by the company in making ex-ante decisions on the adoption of policies to reduce its indicators.Item Exportações brasileiras de carne suína para os principais destinos: uma análise de persistência aos choques(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2022-08-19) Xavier, Bruna de Souza; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0903453737945294; Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da; Silva, Renilson Rodrigues da; Silva, Adriana FerreiraBrazil is the emerging country that most exports pork today. However, it has not advanced in terms of production and exports, occupying, since 2012, the 4th place in the list of the largest producers and exporters of the protein in the world. The main objective of this work is to analyze Brazilian pork exports to the main destinations (China, Russia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan and Angola) through an analysis of persistence of shocks between the years 2000 and 2022. The specific objectives are to identify the behavior of each of these series, confirm whether or not they have long memory and verify if the presence of a structural break in the data changes the results of the series. The methodology is based on the long-range dependence test by Lo et al. (1991), and as a way of comparison, other tests were performed, among them are the Classical R/S statistic developed by Hurst (1951); estimation of the fractional integration parameter by spectral regression, or log-perio-dogram, by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983); the semiparametric log-periodogram estimator, by Robinson (1995). The results showed that the series exhibit a long memory property and that, in the face of an exogenous shock, Brazilian pork is considered a product with a strong presence in the international market, although subject to export volatility and low diversification of buyers, in addi-tion to political and sanitary interferences. Therefore, the hypothesis confirms the existence of per-sistence of shocks considering that after an exogenous shock it is possible to infer that both the volumes exported and the amounts paid for pork by the selected destinations tend to return to the pattern prior to the event. In this way, the present work differs from the previous literature by analy-zing the behavior of the Brazilian pork export series.