Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
Nenhuma Miniatura disponível
Data
2023-02-28
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
Soybean complex has stood out in the growth of the Brazilian economy. One factor that has
contributed to this success in production is agroclimate risk zoning, which recommend
sowing dates and areas for Brazil with lower climate risk. In this context, during the growing
season, crop is subject to water stresses and higher oscillations of air temperature, which
result in a decrease in yield and grain quality. Climatic events such as El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) cause serious social and economic impacts, and are characterized with
events of floods, storms, frosts and prolonged droughts. Crop and environment has a multiple
interactions and crop modeling comes as a science based on a simple representation of a
system capable of represent these interactions. This way, the aim of this study was to
evaluate the effects of the ENOS on simulated soybean yield in different Brazilian regions,
sowing dates, maturation groups and soil type. For this, the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean
model was used to simulate yield for 14 locations in Brazil. Climatic data from 1961 to 2016
was obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology and complemented from
NASAPOWER until 2020, totaling 60 growing seasons of simulation. The simulation were
performed using three soil types and three maturation groups, obtained from works that
carried out the calibration of the model. Sowing dates were based on agroclimatic risk
zoning, considering the maximum sowing window, divided into each ten days. The yield
was correlated with the qualitative classification of ENOS (El Niño, La Niña and neutral
phase). El Niño and La Niña phase occurred in 35% of growing season each, totaling 42
events in 60 years. In Cerrado biome, the majority of municipalities indicating a better
performance with a late cycle, considering the greater sowing window. The greatest yield
gains were obtained in growing seasons with neutral and La Niña phase, resulting in higher
yield when compared to El Niño phase. This way, the sowing dates and crop cycle can help
to reduce climate risk, independent of ENOS phase, but with soybean showing higher
potential yield in growing seasons under neutral and La Niña.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Citação
NICOLAU NETO, P. L. A. Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul. 2023. 113 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2023.