Path dependence e política fiscal no Brasil: do Plano Real ao impeachment da Presidenta Dilma

Abstract

The research problem of this dissertation is to verify the application of path dependence to Brazilian fiscal policy, in the period identified between the implementation of the Real Plan and the impeachment of President Dilma, through the process tracing research method. Path dependence is a theory linked to historical institutionalism that defends the tendency for institutions and public policies to follow the parameters in which they were created, even if they are random, due to the increasing returns that such a decision brings to political agents. The changes, in turn, would occur at specific moments called critical junctures. Thus, the objective of this study, considering the Real Plan as a moment of critical juncture, is to relate the maintenance of fiscal policies in Brazil under the orthodox aspect due to the increasing returns offered in this sense. The process tracing research method, in turn, consists of identifying the causal mechanisms, within a delimited historical context, that make possible the result object of study. Finally, the conclusion of the dissertation was that the great influence of the financial market and defenders of neoliberalism (and its related concepts) in the formulation of Brazilian fiscal policies create increasing returns for their conduct based on orthodox theory, as well as that any change implies a high cost of change through the same causal mechanisms mentioned above.