Avaliação de modelos de distribuição de espécies e sua aplicação na conservação da onça-pintada (Panthera onca)
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2010-11-19
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
Recently, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been widely used as
base for several types of analyses, including evaluations of climate changing
impact on species distribution and conservation strategies settlement. This
methodology enables the prediction of potential geographic distribution based
on species ecological requirements, extrapolating data from known
occurrences to unknown areas. There is a wide variety of methods which
presents different capabilities to synthesize the significant relationships
between species data and the environmental variables used as preditors.
These variations are consequences of a series of factors that influence
model s performance, such as species characteristics, the kind and quantity of
data available, and the scale of the analyses. In this study we adopted the
jaguar as a model to evaluate eleven SDM. It was evaluated the spatial
autocorrelation effects between presence records on model s performance,
and the relationship between environmental suitability obtained through these
methods and jaguar population density. The obtained results were used as a
basis for the evaluation of jaguar conservation topics, including analyses of
how global climate changing and land use predictions will affect its distribution
and evaluation of protected areas system in maintaining suitable areas for
species occurrence in the future. It was demonstrated that depending on the
model applied, the species data amount can be more influential than the
spatial autocorrelation between presence points, and that the expected
positive relationship between model-based suitability estimate and jaguar
density was found only for four SDM, but always with a low coefficient of
determination showing a weak data fitness. The analyses also showed that
suitability values inside protected areas are greater than expected by null
model, and this difference tend to increase with the global climate change
scenario evaluated, demonstrating that it is not expected that environmental
suitable areas for jaguars will shift out from the existing protected areas.
Considering future predictions, the main conclusion is that some regions
which must go through an environmental suitability increase for jaguar
occurrence in the future will be converted from natural vegetation to
agricultural land, indicating that the opportunities for jaguar s effective
conservation actions are daily becoming more restricted, in such a way that
the calling for a proactive conservation approach is urgent.
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TÔRRES, Natália Mundim. Evaluation of models of species distribution and their
application in the conservation of the jaguar (Panthera onca). 2010. 215 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciencias Biologicas) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2010.