A distribuição de uma espécie incomum: a utilização de modelos baseados em nicho ecológico para predizer a distribuição futura do desmatamento na amazônia brasileira
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Data
2013-02-18
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
The Amazon forest is being cleared, burned, fragmented and over-exploited at
unprecedented scales. As important as the punishment for environmental crimes, it is
the prevention. This requires the identification of deforestation facilitators and
deforestation mitigators, beyond the knowledge of where the combination of these
factors makes it more likely the occurrence of deforestation. If there is a combination of
conditions that increase the deforestation probability in a particular area, it is possible
estimate potential areas of new deforestation using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM).
The main objective of this study is to test the efficiency of ENMs to define potential
areas of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. In the last chapters, we raise the factors
relevant to the current deforestation and that can be inputs for modeling. For this, we
test the relationship between size of farms, government custody areas, agricultural
technification and law enforcements with deforestation. In later chapters we use ENMs,
first considering an area in western Brazilian Amazon and comparing with other models
established in the literature. Subsequently, we consider the entire Brazilian Amazon and
check the ENM efficiency along the deforestation frontier gradient of the
municipalities. Potential areas created from the ENM, demonstrated great effectiveness
in predicting new areas of deforestation, especially in regions where forest loss is very
active. Thus, we can to consider these models as a tool for action of command and
control planning, reducing money costs and time. Moreover, we find that the presence
of the governance in the Amazon region, either by government custody areas, or
punitive actions, reduces deforestation. Deforestation continues to happen in large
properties, however small farms deforest more than the law allows in its limits. The
municipalities with obsolete agricultural practices are the most deforested.
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SOUZA, Rodrigo Antônio de. A distribuição de uma espécie incomum: a utilização de modelos baseados em nicho ecológico para predizer a distribuição futura do desmatamento na amazônia brasileira. 2013. 163 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Ambientais) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2013.