Crescimento das exportações de carne bovina brasileira entre 2005 e 2015: fatores econômicos

Abstract

The goal of this study is to identify the economic determinants responsible for the growth of Brazilian beef exports between 2005 and 2015, since, nowadays, Brazil maintains its position as the top exporter of this product. Furthermore, the study is extended to the elaboration of a theoretical model that explains this growth, through the specification of an econometric model, and an analysis regarding the impact of the explanatory variables on development of the quantum of beef exported by Brazil. A time series econometric model was developed, specifically a Vector Self-Regression Model with the correction of errors, with Bernanke identification. The results for the matrix of contemporary relations indicate that, differently from the expected result of the theoretical model, the retail price affects negatively the beef exports. A positive shock of 1% on that variable reduces the exports by 0,1%, approximately. Similarly, the cattle stock also showed an inverse relation with beef exports, but with a very low magnitude. As for the beef volume, it was observed that a 1% shock in that variable raises the exports in approximately 0,35%. The results obtained from the Impulse-Response Function indicate that cattle stock is a relevant variable in the explication of Brazilian beef exports, and also a non-anticipated shock in that variable results in a long term adjustment for most variables in the model. Through the decomposition of variance of forecast errors of the exports, it was observed that at the end of fourteen trimesters the currency exchange rate was responsible for approximately 10,7% of the error variance.