Mudanças territoriais e econômicas na África Ocidental: comércio exterior, uso do solo e agricultura em expansão

Abstract

This research analyzes territorial and economic changes in West Africa between 1990 and 2024, focusing on the interactions between foreign trade, land use, and agricultural expansion. The subregion, composed of 16 countries, shows a strong dependence on agriculture as its economic base and holds significant productive potential. However, it faces challenges related to low productivity, forest loss, and economic vulnerability, particularly in the context of climate change and growing pressure on natural resources. The study adopts a quantitative and geospatial approach, employing statistical models of simple correlation and regression, Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM), and the Random Forest algorithm. Simple correlation and regression models were used to identify the relationship between agricultural areas and merchandise exports. The GLMM was applied to determine the socioeconomic and environmental factors influencing agricultural production, considering variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, imports, and forest area. The Random Forest model was employed to map areas most suitable for agricultural expansion, based on edaphic, topographic, and infrastructure variables. The results reveal a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.83) between exports and the expansion of agricultural land, indicating that foreign trade has acted as an important driver of territorial transformation in the subregion. Among the analyzed variables, GDP showed a positive and statistically significant effect on agricultural area, while imports had a negative effect, suggesting a substitution relationship between economic variables and agricultural land expansion. Spatial modeling using Random Forest identified broad zones with high potential for agricultural expansion, particularly in Mali and Mauritania, both located in the Sahel region. This transitional zone between the Sahara Desert and tropical savannas faces severe climatic and environmental degradation challenges but also represents one of the continent’s key emerging agricultural frontiers. In relative terms, the countries with the highest agricultural expansion potential are Ghana, Guinea, and Liberia (252.41%), revealing significant opportunities for national-scale productive growth. The study concludes that West Africa’s economic growth is closely linked to agriculture and exports, but the dependence on primary commodities still constrains sustainable development and heightens environmental vulnerability. Therefore, the research highlights the importance of public policies aimed at sustainable agricultural intensification, economic diversification, and environmental impact mitigation as essential pathways to fostering a resilient agricultural system that balances development with conservation.