A expansão da cana-de-açúcar na região centro-oeste de Minas Gerais: cenário atual e tendências futuras
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2014-03-30
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
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In the last decade, Brazilian sugar-energy sector showed significant growth, mainly between 2003 and 2009, when a vigorous expansion of industrial plants and sugarcane farmings occurred. According to IBGE, the increase of sugarcane planted area in the country in that period was of around 64.5 %, concentrating on Cerrado areas in the south-central region states. The research conducted during the development of this thesis, aimed at analyze the effects of the expansion of sugarcane farmings, especially those affected by cover and land use in the midwest region of Minas Gerais, under two different time perspectives . The first covers the period between 2005 and 2010, while the second considers simulated scenarios for cover and land use in the year 2030. For this, we used census data, geoprocessing and environmental modeling techniques using the free platform EGO DYNAMICS. The results showed that sugarcane farmings expansion in the midwest concentrated in the towns of Arcos, Bambuí, Iguatama, Japaraíba, Lagoa da Prata and Luz, which had an increase of 74 % in planted area for the period from 2005 to 2010. Sugarcane expansion in the region occurred primarily on agriculture and pasture areas, exacerbating competition for land use. Among the major crops of the investigated towns, corn and soybeans were those that yielded more space for sugarcane, while beans and coffee farmings had increased planted area in that period. The results of this research confirmed the hypothesis that sugarcane farmings, because of their higher level of investment, tend to occupy the best lands, including those equipped with basic infrastructure (roads and electrification, for example). The two scenarios simulated for the year 2030 (with respective growth rates), considered different contexts experienced by the sugarcane sector and showed mixed results. In the first, generated with transition rates derived from the period 1995-2000, the pasture areas would remain roughly stable, with a decrease of sugarcane farmings by 24.7 %, but with increased area for other crops of around 40%. The second scenario, produced with rates that represent the range between 2005 and 2010, proved to be very favorable to sugarcane expansion, with an increase of 127.3 % of the planted area. Sugarcane expansion would occur especially on agriculture and pasture areas, which would decrease by 35 % and 27.1 % respectively. In this scenario, the remaining Cerrado vegetation would remain stable, with a small positive bias of 1.4 %. It is understood that the product of this study will provide information to decision makers, on a regional scale, for the creation of policies aimed at more efficient management of cover and land use in the midwest region of Minas Gerais.
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OLIVEIRA, Edmar Geraldo de. A expansão da cana-de-açúcar na região centro-oeste de Minas Gerais: cenário atual e tendências futuras. 2014. 133 f. Tese (Mestrado em Ciências Ambientais) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2014.