Impactos do crédito na geração de empregos e na produtividade do trabalho nas agroindústrias brasileiras

Abstract

This doctoral thesis evaluated the impacts of official subsidized credit programs on employment generation and labor productivity in Brazilian agro-industries. Specifically, it examined the effects of loans guaranteed by the Guarantee Fund for Investments under the Emergency Program for Access to Credit (FGI PEAC), the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), and the Constitutional Funds of the Northeast (FNE) and North (FNO) on employment generation and labor productivity between 2013 and 2021, focusing on agroindustry size categories. To this end, three econometric techniques widely recognized in the literature were employed, utilizing firm-level microdata. The results for loans guaranteed by FGI PEAC indicated superior performance in employment, average wages, and total wage bill among micro and small agro-industries compared to non-beneficiaries, highlighting the role of credit cooperatives as mitigators of market failures. Micro and small enterprises that accessed credit through cooperatives showed a 6.9 percentage point higher employment stock, a 2.5 percentage point higher average wage, and a 9.4 percentage point higher total wage bill compared to agro-industries that accessed credit via commercial banks. Regarding BNDES credit, the results showed positive and significant effects on micro and small agro-industries, with employment increasing by 5.6% and average wages rising by 1.5%. Conversely, no positive or significant impacts were observed for medium and large agro-industries in terms of either employment or average wages after exposure to BNDES credit. Furthermore, the average impacts were heterogeneous over time following the initial exposure to BNDES credit, emphasizing a more efficient allocation of subsidized credit for employment generation when resources are directed toward micro and small agro-industries. As for the Constitutional Funds (FNE and FNO), the results revealed that the effects are nonlinear after exposure to financing. Employment generation and labor productivity depend on the amounts financed, being more effective when resources are allocated to micro and small agro-industries. Additionally, it was found that financing larger amounts does not necessarily lead to better outcomes in terms of employment generation and labor productivity in agro-industries. The study also demonstrated that credit from FNE and FNO could more effectively reduce regional disparities in the Northeast and North if micro and small agro-industries had greater participation in loan programs, given the critical role of small businesses in job creation and economic development. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the ongoing challenge of improving the design and evaluation of credit policies to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of public policies with significant social impacts. The study sheds light on the economic agents most affected by credit market imperfections, particularly micro and small agro-industries.