Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade
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2020-12-18
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
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For the appropriate conducting of fiscal policy is important understand how tax revenue responds to macroeconomic changes, quantifying its sensitivity. Incorrect forecasts about growth of tax revenue can lead to mistakes in the elaboration of the government budget of the following year, compromising fiscal balance. In addition to quantifying this sensitivity in the long run, it’s also of fundamental importance to know how tax revenue develops in face of short-term fluctuations in the level of economic activity, because the correct estimative of revenue, within the financial year, allows matching the expenditure execution to the pace of revenue collection, achieving the budget balance. In this context, this work aims to measure the sensitivity of VAT (Value-Added Tax) revenue in Goiás in face of changes in the level of economic activity. For this goal, short and long-term elasticities of VAT are estimated in response to changes in GDP, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), OLS with Error Correction Model and OLS with Error Correction allowing asymmetrical responses. These elasticities are also estimated for the largest sectors of economy in terms of VAT. Quarterly series are used in the period between 1st quarter of 2003 and 1st quarter of 2020. Among the main empirical verifications, it’s observed, as desirable, a tax revenue elastic to GDP in the long run, indicating that VAT in Goiás accompanies the growth of the Brazilian economy, with an elasticity of 1.32121. In the short term, VAT revenue is inelastic to GDP, showing some stability during cyclical crises, with growth of around 0.97% for every 1% of GDP growth. It’s also verified that the tax revenue in Goiás presents asymmetrical responses in the short term. When below the long-term equilibrium, the short-term elasticity is 0.753, more inelastic than in the model without asymmetry. On the other hand, when above of the long-term equilibrium, it presents an elastic tax revenue, equal to 1.209016.
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OLIVEIRA, W. X. Análise das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo da arrecadação de ICMS em Goiás por setor de atividade. 2020. 75 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2020.