Interações entre Cerrado e Amazônia: avaliação de cenários sobre as mudanças no uso das terras para 2030, 2050 e 2100

Abstract

The conversion of natural ecosystems into agricultural areas has been one of the main drivers of environmental change in Brazil, especially in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, which concentrate much of the country’s agricultural production and carbon stock. Understanding the possible future trajectories of these landscapes is essential to guide conservation policies and the sustainable use of the territory. This study analyzed the future trajectories of land use and land cover in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, modeling scenarios up to 2100 based on different deforestation rates and contexts of anthropic pressure. The results indicate that the Cerrado tends to be depleted more quickly in the early decades, with high annual losses of native vegetation between 2030 and 2050, while the Amazon absorbs most of the pressure in the long term, with accelerated deforestation rates between 2050 and 2100. This dynamic reveals the strong interdependence between the biomes, as the reduction of available areas in the Cerrado drives expansion into the Amazon. The discussions highlight that agricultural expansion can occur without new deforestation, making use of already cleared areas, but this depends on land-use planning policies and the sustainable intensification of livestock. Moreover, the effectiveness of public policies, such as the Forest Code, and private commitments, such as the Soy Moratorium and Cattle Agreements, is crucial to contain native vegetation conversion. Integrating these instruments and extending their application to the Cerrado could avoid significant carbon emissions and contribute to biodiversity conservation. The study concludes that the future of the Amazon and Cerrado will depend not only on deforestation rates but also on the capacity to implement productive strategies that decouple agricultural expansion from forest suppression. Livestock intensification, the use of already cleared lands, and the effective adoption of public and private policies are central paths to align agricultural production with environmental conservation.