Análise da estabilidade do processo de vacinação no Brasil usando CEP sobre os resíduos ARIMA

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the stability of the vaccination coverage process for poliomyelitis and yellow fever in Brazil, from 1994 to 2022, using historical vaccination coverage series. The methodology of Statistical Process Control (SPC), adapted for autocorrelated data, was employed. The statistical diagnosis of the original series confirmed the presence of autocorrelation and the lack of adherence to normality. The series were treated through the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, following the Box–Jenkins methodology. The application of individual control charts and EWMA charts to the residuals indicated that, after the removal of autocorrelation, both vaccines exhibited processes under statistical control, with no points outside the control limits, demonstrating the adequacy of this approach for monitoring vaccination coverage.