Risk analysis of fireworks balloons in Brazilian airspace

Abstract

This study assesses the aviation safety risks in Brazil posed by fireworks balloons, a cultural practice that has become a significant concern for air operations. The methodology involved analyzing Centro de Investigação e Prevenção de Acidentes Aeronáuticos (CENIPA) data on notifications and recorded collisions from 2014 to 2023, using descriptive and statistical approaches, alongside the application of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) risk matrix to assess the probability and severity of collisions. The results reveal a high concentration of notifications in the states of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Paraná, with a focus on the airports of Guarulhos (SBGR), Galeão (SBGL), Santos Dumont (SBRJ), Curitiba, Viracopos (SBKP), Congonhas (SBSP), and Campo de Marte (SBMT). The final risk analysis indicated that SBGR and SBGL airports present the highest collision risks, while SBRJ, despite not recording collisions, requires attention due to the high number of notifications. Additionally, SBKP and SBSP showed moderate risks, and SBMT, assessed using the general aviation risk matrix, exhibited a high risk for smaller aircraft. Pearson’s correlation (0.9157) between the number of notifications and collisions suggests that increased notifications are associated with a higher risk of collision. The study concludes with an urgent call for stricter regulations and preventive measures, emphasizing the need for new technologies to mitigate risks to Brazilian airspace.