Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the state of Goias, Brazil
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2011-08
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Resumo
The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to
estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of
Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering,
simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of
elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were
adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature
in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate
the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years
of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the
estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing
estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90
percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model
performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott
agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.
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Growing degree-days, Fourier series, Base temperature, Thermal requirement, Graus-dia, Série de Fourier, Temperatura base, Requerimento térmico
Citação
ANTONINI, Jorge C. dos A.; SILVA, Euzebio M. da; GRIEBELER, Nori P.; SANO, Edson E. Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the state of Goias, Brazil. Engenharia Agrícola, Jaboticabal, v. 31, n. 4, p. 652-662, jul./ago. 2011.