Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the state of Goias, Brazil

Abstract

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.