Análise da habilitação econômico-financeira e teste de previsão de insolvência na concessão dos serviços públicos de saneamento básico

Abstract

Objectives: The general objective of the study was to analyze the indicators proposed by Decree 10,710/21 in the economic-financial qualification phase of bidding processes for public basic sanitation service concessions in relation to those usually adopted. To achieve this, the following specific objectives stand out: i) calculate the indicators proposed by Decree 10,710/21 and those usually adopted by companies in the basic sanitation sector and analyze whether they meet the minimum benchmarks; ii) compare whether companies are qualified to participate in tenders for the concession of public basic sanitation services, according to the minimum references of each methodology; and iii) evaluate the insolvency risk of the two models and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of adopting each set of indicators. Method: As a sample, the indicators of 25 providers with regional coverage were analyzed, during the period from 2017 to 2021. Results: The results obtained indicate that 68% of companies comply with the minimum benchmarks set out in the new legal framework, while 32% comply with the indicators usually adopted. The two groups of companies were subjected to the insolvency prediction tests proposed by Altman (1979) and Kanitz (1974), being partially approved in the first model and fully approved in the second. Scientific contributions: The methodology proposed by the new legal framework for basic sanitation proved to be more advantageous for public administration for the following reasons: i) use of a specific methodology for the basic sanitation sector, that is, it takes into account the economic reality of the sector; ii) use of profitability indicators; iii) calculation of indicators based on the median of the last five financial years, which allows analysis of the bidder's trends; iv) expansion of the number of companies able to participate in the bidding for the concession of services, increasing the competitive nature of the event, without increasing the risk, as it proved capable of selecting solvent companies.