A eficácia das regras fiscais federais no equilíbrio fiscal dos entes subnacionais brasileiros

Abstract

This dissertation analyzes the effectiveness of federal fiscal rules applied to the Brazilian states and the Federal District, based on the hypothesis that, although these rules have been capable of limiting the formal expansion of indebtedness, they have not ensured the preservation of fiscal balance, thereby leading to illiquidity. To investigate this hypothesis, the study reconstructs the historical trajectory of state and Federal District indebtedness, the federalization of liabilities, and the consolidation of the current fiscal framework, covering the period from the accumulation of debt between the 1960s and the 1990s through the 2020s. The analysis focuses on the period following the 1990s and, in particular, on the fiscal crisis that began in 2015. The research employs a mixedmethods approach, combining documentary analysis, a historical-institutional review, and an examination of fiscal series derived from official secondary sources, without the use of formal econometric models. The findings indicate that the fiscal framework was relatively effective in containing the growth of gross and net debt relative to Net Current Revenue and Gross Domestic Product, primarily due to restrictions on the contracting of credit operations. The study also demonstrates that primary and nominal balance targets became detached from the concept of classical fiscal sustainability in the context of debt controls and the automatic capitalization of a portion of interest payments. Furthermore, methodological discrepancies created limitations in the enforcement of important fiscal rules, while the ceiling on current expenditures proved to be relatively high and of limited capacity to reduce budgetary rigidities at the subnational level. The dissertation concludes that debt dynamics alone do not constitute a sufficient indicator of fiscal balance in the Brazilian subnational context. Consequently, the fiscal framework should be reoriented toward mechanisms aimed at preserving government liquidity.