Competitividade e desempenho das exportações brasileiras de soja e subprodutos: uma análise pelo IVCRs e pelo modelo Constant Market Share (2017–2024)

Abstract

This study analyzes the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean and soybean by-product exports in the global market between 2017 and 2024, within a context of increasing relevance of Brazilian agribusiness in international trade and intensifying competition among major exporting countries. Soybeans have become one of the main commodities in Brazil’s export basket, playing a central role in foreign exchange generation and the country’s external insertion, especially in light of the growing global demand for food and industrial inputs. In this context, understanding the determinants of competitiveness in the soybean complex is essential to assess Brazil’s export performance. The main objective of this study is to evaluate this performance by identifying Brazil’s relative position among the leading global competitors. To this end, the research aims to: (i) measure the Symmetric Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (SRCA) for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal; (ii) apply the Constant Market Share (CMS) model to decompose variations in Brazilian exports; and (iii) compare the evolution of national competitiveness with that of other global players. The ex post data used are obtained from the National Supply Company (CONAB), the Comex Stat/SECEX system, the International Trade Centre (ITC), and the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) platform. The results show that Brazil maintains a high level of competitiveness in the international soybean market, with SRCA values for soybeans ranging between 0.94 and 0.95 throughout the period, indicating strong export specialization. For by-products, performance is also positive, although relatively lower, with SRCA values of 0.91 for soybean meal and 0.78 for soybean oil in 2024. The decomposition of exports using the CMS model reveals that export growth was driven both by the expansion of total world trade (6.71) and by the dynamism of global soybean trade (4.31), with the competitiveness effect (5.58) also playing a significant role, reinforcing Brazil’s ability to increase its relative share in the international market.