Análise da tendência de chuva entre 1949 e 2019 em Goiânia, GO
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2021-02-24
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
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Weather variability influences the behavior of the population and many sectors of the economy. Anthropic actions directly affect global warming and, consequently, intensify the hydrological cycle, triggering a sequence of adverse effects such as increasing air temperature and changing precipitation in different regions. The analysis of the trend of historical precipitation allows determining the occurrence of local climate changes, enabling the evaluation of their consequences on hydrographic basins and, consequently, on society being a tool to solve problems of interest to engineering, such as surface runoff control and urban drainage, in addition to agricultural problems, such as crop management and mitigation systems. Climatic variability can also be caused by macroscale phenomena, such as ENSO. So, the objective of this work was to carry out the quantitative analysis and the trend of the historical series of rain from 1949 to 2019 in Goiânia, GO, on an annual, monthly and quarterly scale, through descriptive statistics and the Mann-Kendall test counting the occurrence of dry, rainy days and precipitated volumes and observing the occurrence, intensity and its relationship with ENSO. The pluviometric data were obtained on the Hidroweb database and a preliminary analysis was performed, filling in the missing data. The series was organized on the study and consistency scales, in which trends, averages and statistical tests were analyzed. The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of the period was obtained and the years were classified according to the occurrence, intensity and duration of the ENSO and the ONI response delay ratio in the rain intensity was determined. There was a large annual variation in the distribution of rainfall in the region, with a maximum of 2,049 mm (1982) and a minimum of 1,037 mm (1949), with a climatological average of 1,558 mm. Mann-Kendall indicated a tendency of increased rainfall of 2.31 mm year-1. In the monthly analysis, March and April showed a tendency of increasing rainfall of 2.48 and 1.87 mm month-1, respectively, from 1949 to 2019. In the quarterly analysis, the January-February-March (JFM) and April-May-June (AMJ) quarters showed a trend of increasing rainfall of 1.93 and 1.87 mm month-1, respectively. The city of Goiânia (GO) presented an average of 228 days without the occurrence of rains per year, which corresponded to 62% of the year, as for the daily volume of rain there were 200 occasions of precipitation above 60 mm day-1. When comparing the volume of rain with the ONI of the seasons of the same period and previous periods, a weak correlation was observed. Thus, there is a tendency of increasing rainfall in the annual accumulated. However, no correlation was found between the volume of rain and the occurrence of ENSO phenomena.
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SILVA, A. C. S. Análise da tendência de chuva entre 1949 e 2019 em Goiânia, GO. 2021. 70 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2021.