Doutorado em Ecologia e Evolução (ICB)
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Navegando Doutorado em Ecologia e Evolução (ICB) por Por Orientador "Bini, Luis Mauricio"
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Item Preponderância da dinâmica hidrológica sobre a sincronia e padrões de diversidade beta de comunidades zooplanctônicas(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2015-03-27) Lopes, Vanessa Guimarães; Branco, Christina Wyss Castelo; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6129052109183586; Bini, Luis Mauricio; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0931860042124079; Branco, Christina Wyss Castelo; Carvalho, Priscilla de; Nabout, João Carlos; Vieira, Ludgero G. C.; Velho, Luiz Felipe MachadoSeveral studies have shown that spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous pattern, occurring in different regions, types of ecosystems and in different groups of organisms. Spatial synchrony has important implications for the persistence of populations. Another implication is the possibility of using local "sentinels" sites, assuming regionalized or synchronous dynamics over the whole area of interest. In this context, our work uses a long-term (8 years) data set to quantify the level of synchrony between local zooplankton populations in a tropical reservoir. We expect high synchrony due to high connectivity as well as due to the Moran effect. Population synchrony was negatively correlated with geographic distance. However, population synchrony declined more consistently with environmental distance and environmental synchrony than with geographic distance. Besides, our results suggested that main variables driving synchrony were those correlated with hydrological conditions. Geographic distance was more important for protozoans, while the population synchrony of the other zooplankton groups was strongly driven by environmental synchrony. Furthermore, we found a decrease of environmental synchrony with the increase of geographical distance between points. Our results suggest that the strength of the Moran’s effect may be underestimated when simple environmental distances are used. We suggest that further studies should allow for environmental synchrony instead of allowing only for environmental similarity. Finally, despite significant, population synchrony was not so high to justify a reduction in the number of sampling sites.Item Contrafactuais para estudos de avaliação de impacto em ecologia e biologia da conservação(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2020-03-16) Ribas, Luiz Guilherme dos Santos; Bini, Luis Mauricio; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0931860042124079; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Brum, Fernanda Thiesen; Silva, Daniel De Brito Cândido da; Diniz Filho, José Alexandre Felizola; Vieira, Ludgero Cardoso GalliSeveral impact analysis methods based on counterfactuals have been recurrently applied in different areas of knowledge. These methods, under different aspects, tend to give more accurate and precise estimates of the effect of a given intervention and potentially establish causal relationships more convincingly. Counterfactual methods seek, for example, an answer to the following question: what would be the rate of deforestation if an area had not been protected? When comparing counterfactual states with factual states, one can infer about causal relationships to understand how a given event impacts the outcomes in a system of interest. However, only recently and superficially these methods have been applied in Ecology and Conservation Biology. This thesis is divided into four chapters and aims to address the application of counterfactual methods in Ecology and Conservation Biology to estimate the impact of different interventions. The first chapter discusses the possibilities and implications of using counterfactuals in Aquatic Ecology and related areas. The second chapter consisted of a systematic review of the effectiveness of protected areas in mitigating deforestation. In addition, the estimates of effectiveness of protected areas (in avoiding deforestation) given by traditional and counterfactual methods were compared. The third chapter is a review of a set of methods used to estimate counterfactual states. The fourth chapter investigates the impact of the "Day of Fire" on forest fire rates in the Amazon region. In this chapter, new counterfactual approaches (directed acyclic graph and Bayesian structural time-series model), at least in Ecology and Conservation Biology, were applied. In general, this thesis aims to promote the use of counterfactual methods in the environmental area.Item Meta-research in aquatic ecology(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2021-07-30) Spacek, Sara Lodi de Carvalho; Bini, Luis Mauricio; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0931860042124079; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Carvalho, Priscilla de; Bortolini, Jascieli Carla; Michelan, Thaísa Sala; Vieira, Ludgero Cardoso GalliAs revisões sistemáticas valorizam a transparência, a comunicação sistemática e a reprodutibilidade, e seguem orientações claras e diretas. É tão simples como sistematizar a revisão qualitativa, como o nome implica. Uma revisão quantitativa (ou meta-análise) também pode ser conduzida e vai um passo além ao fornecer apoio empírico para as conclusões. Utilizando esta técnica, podemos combinar estudos múltiplos e independentes, calculando um tamanho de efeito médio ponderado pela precisão do estudo, o que proporciona à análise um maior poder estatístico. Esta tese aborda a meta-análise como tema principal, e está dividida em três capítulos, todos relacionados com meta investigação em ambientes de água doce. No Capítulo 1, avaliei a qualidade das meta-análises em ecologia de água doce e fiz recomendações sobre como podemos aumentar a qualidade das meta-análises em ecologia aquática. Avaliei outra questão de qualidade no Capítulo 2, especificamente vieses de resultados positivos. No Capítulo 3 realizei uma meta-análise utilizando estudos de avaliação dos efeitos do uso do solo em ambientes de água doce nas escalas regional e local. Comparei as dimensões dos efeitos obtidos ao utilizar variáveis da paisagem local e terrestre. Curiosamente, também forneço um exemplo de um estudo com resultados negativos, uma vez que as minhas hipóteses não foram confirmadas. Acredito que esta tese irá expandir a visão dos limnólogos sobre as possibilidades da técnica meta-analítica aplicada ao nosso campo de investigação.Item Sincronia espacial e interespecífica de microalgas em ambientes aquáticos(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2018-03-20) Zanon, Jaques Everton; Bini, Luis Mauricio; http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4723662H9; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Bortolini, Jascieli Carla; Nabout, João Carlos; Vieira, Ludgero G. C.; Ortega, JeanPopulation synchrony occurs when abundance of different local populations increase and decrease simultaneously along time. In terms of other characteristics that can be measured in ecosystems, such as biomass and nutrient contents, intrinsic and extrinsic processes have also been used to explain synchronic variation patterns. Synchrony may clarify whether regional processes are more important than local processes. This study used epiphytic biomass data (chlorophyll-a) from eight locations collected in a floodplain through 11 years. The goal was to estimate epiphytic biomass synchrony. We anticipated that high synchrony levels would be consistent with the strong impact of floods, which affect different floodplain habitats simultaneously. This is equivalent to the Moran effect. In contrast, low synchrony levels would be consistent with the hypothesis that high environmental heterogeneity of floodplains hampers synchrony. Our results indicated low synchrony and its variation was not correlated with geographic or environmental distances and neither with environmental synchrony. Also, regression models demonstrated low predictive power of local environmental variables in predicting biomass variation in the different sites. In addition, we performed a meta-analysis that confirms the generality of our findings. In conclusion, these results challenge the efficiency of epiphytic biomass as an ecological indicator, at least in floodplain system.