Doutorado em Ecologia e Evolução (ICB)
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Navegando Doutorado em Ecologia e Evolução (ICB) por Por Orientador "DINIZ FILHO, José Alexandre Felizola"
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Item Biogeografia da conservação frente à expansão agrícola: conflitos e prioridades(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2012-04-10) DOBROVOLSKI, Ricardo; LOYOLA, Rafael Dias; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7649189080736923; DINIZ FILHO, José Alexandre Felizola; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0706396442417351Agriculture is the human activity with the greatest impact on the environment. Specifically, it represents the greatest threat to biodiversity. In the future, this activity should expand due to population growth, increased consumption and production of biofuels from food. To understand the possible impacts of this expansion on biodiversity, we used scenarios of land use change between 1970 and 2100 from IMAGE (Integrated Model to Access Global Environment) to test the following hypotheses: (i) areas considered as global priorities for conservation by international NGOs will be preferentially impacted by agricultural expansion in the XXI century, (ii) there is a conflict between the priority areas for carnivores conservation and agricultural expansion, and this conflict can be reduced by incorporating information on agricultural expansion in the prioritization process, (iii) the integration among countries for conservation planning may benefit both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, (iv) Brazilian protected areas will be impacted by agricultural expansion in the future and this impact will differ between protected areas of integral protection and those of sustainable use. We found that: (i) the impact on priority areas for conservation depends on the criteria by which they were set, so that areas defined by its high vulnerability are currently most affected than those of low vulnerability. Throughout the XXI century this impact is expected to increase, although the difference between the two types of priorities remains, except for High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, defined by their low vulnerability in current time, but for which most pessimistic scenarios forecast an impact similar to priority areas of high vulnerability, (ii) there is a high spatial congruence between areas with high agricultural use in the future and priority areas for conservation of carnivores. This conflict can be reduced if the prioritization process include information on agricultural expansion; this incorporation, however, causes a profound change in the distribution of priority areas and reduces the number of protected carnivore populations, (iii) the integration of countries to create a set of priority areas for conservation that represents 17% of the land surface can protect 19% more mammal populations without reducing food production, compared to a strategy in which each country seeks to protect its territory independently, and (iv) the impact of agriculture in Brazil is expected to increase until the end of the century, threatening even the protected areas and their surroundings. This impact, however, should not be different between areas of sustainable use and those of integral protection. We conclude that agricultural expansion should remain a major threat to biodiversity in the future, even in areas of special interest for conservation. Conservation actions should be planned taking into account this threat in order to reduce their potential impacts. For this, countries like Brazil should strengthen its surveillance on agricultural expansion and on how this activity is developed. Furthermore, the integration of international conservation efforts should be pursued, given its benefits for biodiversity and food production. Finally, humanity must choose methods of agricultural production that reduce its impacts, including avoiding its future expansion, so as to meet the increasing needs of a human population globally.Item Macroecologia do zooplâncton continental: padrões latitudinais e componentes locais e regionais na determinação da diversidade global(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2012-02-13) PINESE, Olívia Penatti; DINIZ FILHO, José Alexandre Felizola; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0706396442417351One of the oldest and best known global biological patterns in ecology is the latitudinal gradient of richness, characterized by a decrease in the number of species from Equator toward the poles. Several hypotheses, even today, attempt to explain the variation that occurs in the pattern of diversity of many animal and plants. Despite the advances that have been followed in Biogeography and Macroecology in recent decades, studies on biodiversity at a global scale have yet targeted mainly terrestrial and marine groups. This study presented three main objectives, first, to create a representative database of continental zooplankton diversity at global scale, that could demonstrate the distribution of richness patterns for their major groups (Total Zooplankton, Microcrustacea, Copepoda, Cladocera, Rotifera); second, to analyze the adequacy of global richness data to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE); and third, to establish the balance between local and regional components which determined the observed gradients. In this research, data collection was made from scientific papers concerning the diversity of continental zooplankton around the world. The sampling methodology effect on richness data was controlled through regressions, whose residuals were assumed as being the corrected richness. Latitudinal patterns analyses were performed with the corrected richness, developing latitudinal distribution graphs and global maps with color-weighted richness. The MTE was tested basically by analyzing the adequacy of the theory to angular coefficients, generated by multiple regressions between logarithm of raw richness, temperature (1/kT) and methodological variables. The contribution of local and regional components in determining richness was accessed through partial regressions. The results showed variation in the latitudinal patterns observed for different groups of zooplankton. Zooplanktonic crustaceans diversity peaked outside of Equator, while Rotifera diversity showed the classic latitudinal gradient, often found for many organisms around the world. Concerning the MTE, all groups showed different patterns from the one predicted by the theory. The local components were more crucial for crustaceans diversity while the regional components most strongly influenced total zooplankton richness and rotifers, which corroborates the observed results of latitudinal global patterns. This work represents a viable macroecological approach for access diversity patterns of biological groups whose taxonomic data and global geographical coverage about diversity knowledge are scarce, as they are for continental zooplankton organisms.Item Avaliação de modelos de distribuição de espécies e sua aplicação na conservação da onça-pintada (Panthera onca)(Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2010-11-19) TÔRRES, Natália Mundim; MARCO JÚNIOR, Paulo de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2767494720646648; DINIZ FILHO, José Alexandre Felizola; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0706396442417351Recently, Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been widely used as base for several types of analyses, including evaluations of climate changing impact on species distribution and conservation strategies settlement. This methodology enables the prediction of potential geographic distribution based on species ecological requirements, extrapolating data from known occurrences to unknown areas. There is a wide variety of methods which presents different capabilities to synthesize the significant relationships between species data and the environmental variables used as preditors. These variations are consequences of a series of factors that influence model s performance, such as species characteristics, the kind and quantity of data available, and the scale of the analyses. In this study we adopted the jaguar as a model to evaluate eleven SDM. It was evaluated the spatial autocorrelation effects between presence records on model s performance, and the relationship between environmental suitability obtained through these methods and jaguar population density. The obtained results were used as a basis for the evaluation of jaguar conservation topics, including analyses of how global climate changing and land use predictions will affect its distribution and evaluation of protected areas system in maintaining suitable areas for species occurrence in the future. It was demonstrated that depending on the model applied, the species data amount can be more influential than the spatial autocorrelation between presence points, and that the expected positive relationship between model-based suitability estimate and jaguar density was found only for four SDM, but always with a low coefficient of determination showing a weak data fitness. The analyses also showed that suitability values inside protected areas are greater than expected by null model, and this difference tend to increase with the global climate change scenario evaluated, demonstrating that it is not expected that environmental suitable areas for jaguars will shift out from the existing protected areas. Considering future predictions, the main conclusion is that some regions which must go through an environmental suitability increase for jaguar occurrence in the future will be converted from natural vegetation to agricultural land, indicating that the opportunities for jaguar s effective conservation actions are daily becoming more restricted, in such a way that the calling for a proactive conservation approach is urgent.